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Slowdown ahead

Turning. While global GDP growth accelerated up until recently, there is now mounting evidence pointing to a tangible slowdown. The OECD leading economic indicators, one of the most reliable and most forwardlooking yardsticks for the global economy, are already heading clearly south (cf. chart below). Their still high level does, however, argue against a double-dip recession.

US. The slowdown is already evident in the hard numbers. Recent economic indicators were generally weaker than expected. In the second quarter, real GDP probably grew at an annual rate of only 2¼% (IV/09: +5.6%). For the first half of 2011, we expect only 2% (pages 3-5).

Fed. The central bank is also becoming increasingly concerned about the economy, since the retarding effects of the inventory cycle and the expiring fiscal programs will soon be joined by the headwind from higher taxes. There is, therefore, a growing risk that the Fed will initiate its tightening cycle later than projected so far. It may possibly wait until summer next year.

EMU. In Europe, the spring quarter should have still been pretty good. That, however, is attributable solely to a technical reaction to the poor start to the year because of the cold winter weather and not to the recovery of final domestic demand. But GDP growth is set to slow down, although maybe not as pronounced or as early as projected given the recent upbeat readings of PMIs as well as the German Ifo climate index.

ECB. The retarding effects of the inventory cycle and fiscal policy measures are being joined by external strains. This is increasing the risk that the ECB will also have to postpone the first rate hike, especially if today's bank stress test results disappoint investors (pages 6-7 & 8-9).

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3 Tips For Investing Newbies
When it comes to investing as a beginner, you need to make sure you have your proverbial "ducks in a row." There's no need to rush things and get into a situation where your money is in danger or you lose it completely. Through carefully following the below 3 tips you can easily and quickly identify what you need to get started and what to watch out for as well. To learn more read on for the most valuable investing tips you'll probably ever read.

Tip #1 - Always identify your goals and objectives, especially as a beginner. Countless people get into investments and then lose it all or simply hit a brick wall because they have no idea where they're going. The best way to avoid this all too common problem is to have a good idea of what objectives you want to achieve and how you can reach them. Goals can range from deciding you want a $1 million portfolio to simply buying your first share of a stock, it all depends on what you want.

Tip #2 - Strategize a plan to achieve your goals. Simply writing down what you want in the long run won't make it happen and most of the time it's the best way to make sure it doesn't happen at all. Make sure you create a strategy either on your own or with the help of a firm or brokerage to see how you can achieve your goals. Create your own personal investment strategy and use it as a map toward your end goal.

Tip #3 - Proper investing almost always involves diversification of your investments, so the sooner you do it the better. Diversifying what you invest in is a fantastic way to keep yourself protected while also increasing your final return on investment (ROI). Talking with a personal finance planner can help you better decide how you want to diversify your investments.

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The Aussie has been rallying for thew last 12 months against the Yen, reaching higher than initially expected, according to Nicole Elliott, senior technical analyst at Mizuho Corporate Bank, who warns about a pullback below trendline support targeting 74.00 later on this quarter.

The Pair's rally has extended above expectations, according to Elliott, who warns about instability signs: "Interestingly bullish momentum did nothing but decline last year, suggesting we may be watching a ‘wedge’ formation in the making. Though not overbought small signs of instability last week, here and in a series of Yen crosses, with potentially an ‘evening star’ forming this month."

On the downside, Elliott points out to 84.25 level to add weight to this view: " monthly close below 84.25 would add weight to this view suggesting the squeeze to 86.20 was an ‘extension’. Some time in Q1 2010 we favour a drop to through trendline support to 74.00."

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