GBP/USD. Trending ever higher
Cable (1.5351) is up overnight, and spot appears to have resumed its uptrend that began in May.
Technicals:
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Trend: Daily lower; Weekly higher.
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Overbought/Oversold (stochastics): Daily overbought; Weekly oversold.
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Support/Resistance Levels: Resistance lies at 1.5356 (Jul15 high), 1.5524 (Apr15 high), 1.5816 (Feb17 high), 1.6284 (Jan22 high), 1.6458 (Jan19 high), 1.6479 (61.8% retracement of Nov to Dec decline), 1.6722 (Dec 3 high), 1.6878 (Nov16 high) and 1.7043 (Aug high). Support lies at 1.50 (psychological), 1.4949 (Jun12 low), 1.4239 (May19 low) and 1.3503 (Jan’09 low).
Positioning:
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The CFTC, GBP, non-commercial, net-position deteriorated modestly to -39K, presaging the stall and potential decline in spot.
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The risk reversal (3m, 25delta) slipped overnight from the highs since Feb on the rally in spot. While it remains skewed for GBP losses, it is also in the upper end of its six-month range, which suggests an overbought condition.
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Implied Vol (3mo) ticked higher overnight but remains near its low since Jan.
Cross-asset valuation: The significant correlates over the past two months for GBP/USD have been the DXY (negative), EUR/USD (positive), and S&P500 (positive).
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